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Ever since William of Ockham declared that in
situations accounted for by multiple explanations one should prefer the
simpler explanation, scholars have struggled with how to use this advice.
Chance discovery is about investigations at that
boundary of deduction and induction, where a situation described with
partial Possible "explanations." The boundary between deduction- n where
our explanations are provably correct, and induction---where our
explanations are plausible but improvable, is proving to be broader and
more we first thought. complicated than .
Our search for plausible methods of "jumping to
conclusions" has produced everything from methods that reveal a complex
tradeoff t unexplainable but apparently effective application of
heuristics, to over¬formalized logical systems which leave no scope for
new forms of knowledge.
This volume captures what could be argued as the
complete repertoire of the three most important aspects of understanding
this landscape between deduction and induction. Even the concept of
"chance discovery" captures the problem: what knowledge leads, perhaps by
"chance" to improved selection of explanations, without denying the
possibility of other as-yet-missing knowledge?
Included in this three segment volume are
first a broad repertoire of various knowledge-driven heuristics which
demonstrate improved identification of "chance" across diverse
applications. The examples of different heuristics include the
identification and use of emotional responses, tracking of eye movements,
chance discovery to understand multilangua9e browsing behaviour, as well
as more conventional application of analogical reasoning methods. The
second segment provides a sampling of formalization methods for chance
discovery, which walk the fine line between identifying new knowledge
forms that can be brought within formalized reasoning, without closing the
door to the richness of partial information situations. Included here are
those expected candidates, including extend formal deductive reasoning
with the probability and e various the tools that partial knowledge. The
final segment provides a sampling of some of the existing tools for
conducting experiments with chance discovery systems, again driven by
general applications (e.g., interactive knowledge acquisition, opponent
modeling, and customer data mining).
Perhaps the best summary is that the walk through
the space between complete and partial knowledge situations is complex,
and there are many different methods available to approach that walk. This
volume provides a broad and interesting repertoire of sign posts on that
walk, and will help future explorers improve their understanding of a very
difficult problem.
Randy Goebel, Department of Computing Science, University
of Alberta
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